Honest president

Presidential race has belatedly started in Korea. It is premature to predict the winner. But the winner will probably be the one who rides the spirit of the times, often called zeitgeist.

Park Geun-hye officially declared her presidential candidacy Tuesday, and few question her nomination as the standard-bearer of the governing Saenuri Party.

The main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) is also in primary mode. One of the four major players ― Moon Jae-in, Kim Doo-kwan, Sohn Hak-kyu and Chung Sye-kyun ― will likely get the nomination.

A DUP presidential candidate may hold a run-off against Ahn Cheol-soo in either October or early November. The DUP candidate, if he beats Ahn in a run-off, would be a formidable challenger to Park.

Park, the daughter of the late authoritarian President Park Chung-hee, outpolls any DUP candidate by a wide margin, but Ahn is often ahead of her although he has yet to declare a presidential bid.

To win the race, Park has to overcome a few hurdles. In the National Assembly election, her party won, despite being 125,000 votes behind the DUP in total votes cast. A repeat of the parliamentary voting pattern could lead to her loss.

She has to put her house in order to win the hearts of skeptical voters. Park inherited questionable wealth from her late father, and would be wise enough to sever her ties with the so-called Chungsoo Scholarship Foundation, the de facto owner of the nation’s No. 2 broadcasting company MBC. Speculation is rife that she may announce the donation of personal assets she inherited from her father, just days before the voting date ― a tactic that will dramatize the race.

She will be alert over a come-from-behind-win by her opponent. In the 1997 and 2002 races, Lee Hoi-chang suffered reversals from Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.

To repeat the come-from-behind victory, the opposition DUP seeks ways to dramatize its primary race.

The ruling party’s nomination race is quite boring as Reps. Chung Mong-joon and Lee Jae-oh boycott it. Chung even said he would not campaign for Park. This reflects that the party is divided. In a worst case scenario, the anti-Park figures might create a new party. This would be a body blow to her.

Except for 2007, presidential elections have been too close to call. In hindsight, the winners were those who rode the zeitgeist.

In the 1987 race, people yearned for victory by a pro-democracy candidate. However, the divided pro-democracy fighters Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung “elected” Roh Tae-woo, who became a caretaker of Korea’s transition to full democracy.

It was President Kim Young-sam (1993-1998) who uprooted the legacy of the military culture. Despite putting military leaders back in their barracks, he failed to manage the economy well.

Just a month before the next election, Korea had to seek a bailout from the IMF. Kim Dae-jung won the election in 1997 under the catchphrase of a well-prepared president. The liberal Kim narrowly won the election through a marriage of convenience with conservative Kim Jong-pil. He headed the first liberal government in Korea since Park Chung-hee’s coup in 1962.

Liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun won in 2002 on the back of emerging nationalism and patriotism. Roh was an anathema to the establishment. He triggered anger from the rich, the elite and conservatives, and narrowly overcame impeachment.

It was an easy victory for Lee Myung-bak in 2007. Lee won as the people had become sick and tired of 10 years of liberal rule. Voters picked a conservative candidate with a success story in the business world.

Now what is the zeitgeist for this year’s presidential race? Some call for a “democratization of the economy” as a magic solution to polarization between the haves and the have-nots, small and large companies, the young and the old, the employed and the unemployed, and Seoul and the non-Seoul region.

Others say honesty is the zeitgeist for the year. Public cynicism in President Lee runs high because his elder brother and many of his cronies are in jail. All of his predecessors, from Roh Tae-woo to Roh Moo-hyun, ended their presidency in a disgraceful way for corrupt ties involving their families and aides.

Some say voters will pick a great communicator as the next president.

In a nutshell, Korea badly needs a leader capable of easing economic polarization. Honesty and communication skills must be the core ingredients of the next president ― ironically, the three traits President Lee lacks in. This means that the next president might be the candidate having President Lee’s opposite image.

The next president may be the most honest or least dishonest of the two top contenders. Only an honest head of state can communicate well with the people for pursuing sustainable economic growth, expanding welfare and easing polarization. People will listen to only the honest leader when he or she appeals for social harmony and national agenda.

Who do you think is the most honest candidate?

Lee Chang-sup is the executive managing director of The Korea Times. Contact him at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr. <The Korea Times/Lee Chang-sup>

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