40-somethings may hold ‘casting vote’

The outcome of the Dec. 19 presidential election is becoming extremely unpredictable as polls show the three leading candidates ― one representing the ruling party, one the opposition and an independent ― are neck and neck in the race.

However, what seems clear is that swing voters in their 40s will be a decisive factor in shaping the outcome of the heated presidential contest.

Shin Yul, a politics professor at Myongji University, says the 40s age group, who account for some 22.5 percent of eligible voters, has a tendency to cast a ballot largely based on current political situations or issues.

He said they have traits of both conservatives and liberals as they have become established members of society, after having been at the center of the country’s democracy movement in the 1980s.

“They have the brain of a liberal, but the body of a conservative,” Shin said.

A senior official of a pollster concurred with him, saying voters in the 40s are open-minded in choosing candidates.

“People in their 40s are a generation who tend not to look at the world from a black and white or conservative and leftist dichotomy,” he said.

Recent polls show drastically different results regarding candidate selection by the middle-aged group, the majority of whom voted for President Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 presidential election.

They suggest that a change of heart by those in their 40s is chiefly responsible for the nose-diving popularity of Park Geun-hye, the presidential candidate of the ruling Saenuri Party in recent polls.

A survey carried out from Sept. 10 to 12 by Gallup Korea showed that Park enjoyed support of 47 percent in a hypothetical contest with independent Ahn Cheol-soo, whose support rate had fallen to 38 percent.

The latest Gallup survey conducted from Sept. 19 to 21, however, found that software millionaire Ahn surpassed Park in popularity with 49 percent compared to the daughter of the late President Park Chung-hee with 44 percent.

Young people in their 20s and 30s, who account for 19.4 and 22.9 percent of voters, are prone to cast ballots for liberal candidates as they believe a major overhaul in society will provide greater opportunities for them.

In contrast, many voters in their 50s or older tend to be loyal to the ruling Saenuri Party regardless of who becomes the standard bearer of the opposition party as they believe that the conservative party will help them maintain their vested interests.

A recent survey by Research and Research clearly reveals that those in their 20s and 30s want to stick with the opposition party.

It found that only 26.5 percent of those in their 20s support the Saenuri Party compared to 48 percent supporting the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP).

The popularity gap between the two major parties was even evident among people in their 30s.

In contrast, those in the 50s and 60s have a strong tendency to support the Saenuri Party. The poll showed that support for the party was 24 percentage points higher compared to the opposition DUP among those in their 50s and 46 percent higher for those aged 60 and above.

As voters in their 40s are expected to cast ballots based on a candidate’s character and campaign promises, they are expected to be at the center of the election. <The Korea Times/Lee Tae-hoon>

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