Obama’s reelection and priorities

WASHINGTON ― Many nations around the world are wondering what Barack Obama’s reelection means to them.

Obama won a second term by a narrow 2-percent margin of the popular vote, but with an overwhelming victory of 303 to 206 in the Electoral College, over Republican opponent Mitt Romney. President Obama received almost 7 million votes less than he did in his first election in 2008.

A coalition of ethnic minorities and women ― with 93 percent of Blacks; 71 percent of Latinos, 70 percent of Asians, and 55 percent of women voting for Obama ― was a determining democratic factor to the incumbent president’s four more years. In terms of issues, an exit poll showed 75 percent of the voters said, the economy and deficits were most important and only 5 percent said foreign policy was important.

The economy did not play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the elections. Only four in ten voters thought the economy is getting better and only a quarter of them said they are better off than four years ago. Yet, President Obama did not have trouble being reelected despite Governor Romney’s charges that Obama’s policy had failed to turn around the economy with an 8-percent unemployment rate and a rising national debt to $16 trillion. The people seemed to blame George W. Bush for handing over a bad economy to Obama four years ago.

The voters kept a divided government with a Democratic administration and a Republican House of Representatives, by electing 233 Republicans and 193 with a trend of seven more Democratic seats (as of Thursday, Nov. 8), while the Democratic control of the Senate was reinforced ― with a new distribution of 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats. In the Senate, 60 votes are required to stop a filibuster. In other words, unless the second term president reaches out to the other side of the aisle, he would be unable to pass bills to carry out his urgent domestic agenda.

There is a deep philosophical and policy divide between the Democrats and the Republicans and their respective supporters. However, now that the elections are over, the American people are looking forward to see their political leaders on both parties work together to find a balanced solution of compromise to the most urgent issues for America, including avoidance of the fiscal cliff ― a combined effect of tax increase and budget reduction ― which would lead to a recession.

Obama promised to fix the immigration system to benefit the Latino supporters beyond the promotion of the Dream Act for young immigrants, which was opposed by the Republicans. He also said he would raise tax for incomes of over than $250,000. House Speaker John Boehner said the day after the elections that his party would consider more collection of taxes if President Obama does not raise the tax rates on the wealthy.

Other issues are energy independence. More fuel-efficient automobiles, and development of green energy sources such as solar, wind and gas would help energy independence and environment. The Obama care along with such social issues as contraception, abortion or same sex marriage was a very divisive issue during the campaign. Some might think that since Obama won the election, his positions on these issues had been approved by the vote. However, political reality does not support this assumption. For example, the Republican supporters are wary of Obama’s appointing a liberal Justice to Supreme Court to help ruling in favor of liberal positions.

On the foreign policy front, Obama said he would keep the U.S. military as the strongest in the world. However, this too would be impossible if the gridlock that paralyzed legislative function for the past two years is not resolved. Democratic Senate Majority leader Harry Reid complained that the Republicans fought on every issue for two years to defeat President Obama in the election. He said he would rather “dance than fight” and work with the Democrats.

For President Obama’s second term, there is no need for a transition of government but there will likely be a new cabinet with new Secretaries for several departments including State, Defense, Treasure and Justice. It will take time for new nominees to be confirmed by the Senate, but there would be no vacuum or discontinuity of business in the administration since the incumbents are likely to stay until their replacements are ready.

Conventional wisdom in Washington has that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who wants to leave as soon as possible is likely succeeded by Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relational Committee, who has more progressive views on North Korea. However, other possible candidates for the top diplomat’s job include U.N. Ambassador Susan Davis, who may be appointed as National Security Adviser instead.

There are plenty of global issues waiting for Obama’s second term, if he will be willing to deal with them with a priority ― the European financial mess, the uranium enrichment by Iran, the civil strife in Syria, China’s expansionist trend, the North Korean nuclear issue and rebalancing of U.S. policy in Northeast Asia. China welcomed Obama’s re-election as the second most powerful nation would want to have the tested Obama, rather than the unknown Romney who had said he would regard China as a currency manipulator from day one in office, if he had been elected.

On the Korean Peninsula, the second-term American administration is expected to continue supporting a strong alliance with South Korea and its North Korea policy, regardless of who wins the December 19 presidential election in Korean. If history gives any guidance, it is also possible for Obama in his second term could be emboldened to aggressively resolve foreign policy issues to leave them as the legacy of his presidency. What’s your take?

The writer is a research professor of the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies. He is also an ICAS fellow. Reach him at tong.kim8@yahoo.com. <The Korea Times/Tong Kim>