Trump will see the harsh reality of Middle East

Shayan Arya – Analyst at Strategic Outlook Institution

As the world was watching America’s presidential election with great interest and trepidation, something historic was happening in America. Many people thought the election of Hillary Clinton was inevitable given her experience, money and enormous political machine supporting her, the very things her opponent, Donald J Trump, lacked. But Americans had a different idea.

Tired of empty promises of career politicians, worried about the world seemingly falling apart all around them, Americans voted for a change and not just any change: a fundamental change in every aspect of the word. Although no one really knows what his plans for the future are, given he has refused to give details of his proposed policies, it is safe to say that Trump’s election will have enormous ramifications around the globe. Although his foreign policy is not clear, his stated goals, so far, are full of contradictions.

On one hand, he wants to have a closer relationship with Russia and work with the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran to defeat ISIS in Syria and on the other hand he wants to renegotiate the nuclear agreement with Iran and limit or eliminate Islamic Regime and Iran’s destructive influence in the Middle East. How can he achieve these two conflicting goals remain to be seen? But soon he will be faced with the harsh reality of the Middle East, conflicting national interests and diabolically different world views that are tearing the Middle East apart!

The reality of the Middle East will soon force him to either let go of his dream of a better and closer relationship with Russia and by extension Iran, to defeat ISIS in Syria or be forced to accept the nuclear deal with Iran that he so openly opposed. He will either have to succumb to the demands of Russia and Iran or to the demands of America’s closest allies in the region from the Sunni Arab countries to Turkey.

The Middle East is not the only area that his stated policies, so far as we know, anything about them, are going to be tested against the harsh reality of the world. In the Korean peninsula, for example, he is also going to face daunting problems. Sooner or later he will have to deal with North Korea’s provocations and his casual statement about South Korea and Japan getting nuclear weapons is only going to complicate things not say anything about China.

Although it is too early to predict what will happen, but it is safe to say that his first disappointment will come in his implementation of his foreign policy and that will have huge ramifications around the globe. Nowhere is there perhaps more profoundly than in the Middle East!

*The author is analyst at Strategic Outlook Institution, lives in Seattle

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